August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)

Most likely right now
1.42–1.45ºC
3.548%
TechVol $36Total volume $3.3KLiquidity $1.9Kin 7 days (Sep 1)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
1.42–1.45ºC
48.0%
3.5
1.38–1.41ºC
41.0%
>1.45ºC
15.5%
1.34–1.37ºC
8.00%
1.5
<1.30ºC
3.50%
1.30–1.33ºC
1.95%
1.7

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.