As of Oct 16
Polymarket Prediction Market Dashboard
Probabilities set by people betting real money. We collect every open Polymarket market each morning.
Events
7,146
Markets
40,880
Today's records
21,969
Search 20,000+ markets — fed, bitcoin, election, earthquake…
Most likely right now
72%
No change
No change▲1.072%
25 bps increase▼1.028%
25 bps decrease–0.35%
50+ bps increase–0.35%
50+ bps decrease–0.15%
How the odds have moved
No change
25 bps increase
25 bps decrease
50+ bps increase
50+ bps decrease
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-16 · y-axis %
How to read these numbers
- Probability — the market’s odds that it happens. Closer to 100% means the market expects it.
- pp — how far the probability moved since yesterday. 60%→75% is +15pp.
- Volume — money traded in 24 hours. Bigger means more people with real money behind it.
What the market changed its mind about
How much the odds on the same question moved between yesterday and today. Only markets with real trading — a moving quote with no volume is not news.
Grew more likelyyesterday → today
0%50%100%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
↳ October 18
+81.5%p
yst 11%
now 93%
What price will Bitcoin hit October 12-18?
↳ ↓ 80,000
+52.4%p
yst 48%
now 100%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
↳ October 16
+48.7%p
yst 50%
now 98%
What price will Ethereum hit in October?
↳ ↓ 2,400
+35.4%p
yst 65%
now 100%
Bank of Israel Decision in October?
↳ Decrease
+30.3%p
yst 7%
now 38%
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
↳ ↓ 80,000
+28.0%p
yst 72%
now 100%
＋ Show the rest (24)− Collapse
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
↳ October 13
+26.5%p
yst 74%
now 100%
2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?
↳ NVIDIA
+15.5%p
yst 18%
now 33%
Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
↳ October 16
+13.3%p
yst 86%
now 99%
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
↳ Below 4.95%
+12.0%p
yst 5%
now 17%
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
↳ Below 4.7%
+11.5%p
yst 16%
now 27%
Bitcoin above ___ on October 18?
↳ 80,000
+11.0%p
yst 79%
now 90%
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amazonas
↳ Lula
+10.5%p
yst 59%
now 69%
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
↳ No Hormuz Agreement
+8.8%p
yst 85%
now 94%
Ethereum above ___ on October 20?
↳ 2,300
+8.5%p
yst 83%
now 91%
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
↳ October 15
+8.4%p
yst 92%
now 100%
Ethereum above ___ on October 18?
↳ 2,300
+8.3%p
yst 89%
now 97%
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
↳ Below 4.40%
+7.0%p
yst 5%
now 13%
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
↳ SpaceX
+7.0%p
yst 49%
now 56%
Ethereum above ___ on October 19?
↳ 2,300
+7.0%p
yst 87%
now 94%
Bitcoin above ___ on October 20?
↳ 78,000
+7.0%p
yst 87%
now 94%
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
↳ 340-359
+6.9%p
yst 7%
now 13%
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
↳ 360-379
+6.9%p
yst 4%
now 11%
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
↳ 320-339
+6.7%p
yst 9%
now 16%
Bitcoin above ___ on October 19?
↳ 78,000
+6.5%p
yst 90%
now 96%
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
↳ Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
+6.5%p
yst 12%
now 18%
Ink FDV above ___ one day after launch?
↳ $250M
+6.0%p
yst 14%
now 20%
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
↳ ↑ 87,500
+6.0%p
yst 34%
now 40%
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
↳ Likud
+6.0%p
yst 33%
now 39%
Bitcoin above ___ on October 21?
↳ 80,000
+6.0%p
yst 71%
now 77%
Grew less likelyyesterday → today
0%50%100%
Bank of Israel Decision in October?
↳ No Change
−31.8%p
yst 93%
now 61%
Will StandX launch a token by ___?
↳ June 30, 2027
−29.2%p
yst 32%
now 3%
US imports Russian diesel by...?
↳ November 30
−22.5%p
yst 51%
now 28%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
↳ October 17
−21.7%p
yst 26%
now 4%
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
↳ October 16
−18.2%p
yst 22%
now 3%
What price will Ethereum hit October 12-18?
↳ ↓ 2,300
−17.5%p
yst 27%
now 9%
＋ Show the rest (24)− Collapse
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
↳ October 15
−16.8%p
yst 17%
now 0%
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
↳ $50M
−16.8%p
yst 19%
now 2%
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
↳ 5.25%
−14.5%p
yst 42%
now 28%
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
↳ 5.10%
−14.3%p
yst 87%
now 72%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
↳ 5.4%
−14.0%p
yst 53%
now 39%
Israeli Legislative Election: 3rd Place
↳ Together
−14.0%p
yst 84%
now 70%
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
↳ 240-259
−13.2%p
yst 15%
now 1%
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
↳ October 31
−13.0%p
yst 29%
now 16%
What price will Bitcoin hit October 12-18?
↳ ↓ 78,000
−12.0%p
yst 20%
now 8%
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
↳ $200M
−10.9%p
yst 13%
now 2%
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
↳ $800M
−10.3%p
yst 12%
now 1%
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
↳ 260-279
−10.1%p
yst 17%
now 6%
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
↳ $400M
−9.3%p
yst 11%
now 1%
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
↳ Javier Milei
−9.0%p
yst 56%
now 47%
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
↳ ↓ 77,500
−9.0%p
yst 47%
now 38%
GPT Astra 6.1+ released by...?
↳ October 23
−8.5%p
yst 18%
now 10%
Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?
↳ 220-239
−8.1%p
yst 9%
now 0%
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
↳ 5.5%
−7.8%p
yst 30%
now 22%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
↳ November 2
−7.5%p
yst 14%
now 7%
StandX FDV above ___ one day after launch?
↳ $1B
−7.5%p
yst 9%
now 2%
STRC hits $100 by…
↳ November 30
−7.4%p
yst 85%
now 78%
STRC hits $100 by…
↳ December 31
−7.3%p
yst 88%
now 81%
STRC hits $100 by…
↳ October 31
−7.0%p
yst 76%
now 70%
What price will Ethereum hit in October?
↳ ↓ 2,300
−6.5%p
yst 59%
now 52%
Where money and attention went
Left: where the most money moved in 24 hours. Right: what people talked about most.
Top 24h volume
1Brazil Presidential Election80%Flávio Bolsonaro2What price will Bitcoin hit in October?64%↑ 85,0003Next French Presidential Election47%Marine Le Pen4Which party will win the House in 2026?91%Democratic Party5Presidential Election Winner 202821%JD Vance6US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?98%October 167Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?96%October 18
Most discussed
1Brazil Presidential Election80%Flávio Bolsonaro2Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?4.05%December 313Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?3.05%December 314Iran leadership change by...?24%June 30, 20275Presidential Election Winner 202821%JD Vance6Epstein client list released by...?5.15%October 317Iran full airspace closure by...?32%December 31
By category
Bars show 24-hour volume; the number on the right is open events.
Browse all markets
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What is Polymarket?
What is Polymarket? It is the largest prediction market in the world. People stake real money on whether something will happen, and the trading price is the probability the market has settled on — a contract trading at 65 cents means the market gives that outcome a 65% chance. The Polymarket site (polymarket.com) opened in 2020.
This page is a free Polymarket odds tracker: every open market, collected once each morning, laid out in English, Korean and Japanese — what moved, by how much, and where the money went. Election odds, Fed rate odds and crypto markets all sit on one screen. Built and published free by VibeTimes.
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