As of Sep 8
Polymarket Prediction Market Dashboard
Probabilities set by people betting real money. We collect every open Polymarket market each morning.
Events
7,054
Markets
43,201
Today's records
20,935
Search 20,000+ markets — fed, bitcoin, election, earthquake…
Most likely right now
52%
25 bps increase
25 bps increase▲2.052%
No change▼3.048%
50+ bps increase–0.55%
25 bps decrease–0.45%
50+ bps decrease–0.15%
How the odds have moved
25 bps increase
No change
50+ bps increase
25 bps decrease
50+ bps decrease
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-09-08 · y-axis %
How to read these numbers
- Probability — the market’s odds that it happens. Closer to 100% means the market expects it.
- pp — how far the probability moved since yesterday. 60%→75% is +15pp.
- Volume — money traded in 24 hours. Bigger means more people with real money behind it.
What the market changed its mind about
How much the odds on the same question moved between yesterday and today. Only markets with real trading — a moving quote with no volume is not news.
Grew more likelyyesterday → today
0%50%100%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?
↳ September 15
+45.0%p
yst 24%
now 69%
Israel closes its airspace by...?
↳ September 30
+22.4%p
yst 74%
now 96%
Will Russia target Kyiv on...?
↳ September 7
+19.3%p
yst 6%
now 25%
Bratislava Region Governor Election Winner
↳ Juraj Droba
+16.6%p
yst 70%
now 87%
Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
↳ Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?
+16.5%p
yst 43%
now 60%
Next UK by-election called by…?
↳ September 30
+14.8%p
yst 84%
now 99%
＋ Show the rest (24)− Collapse
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
↳ September 4
+14.5%p
yst 45%
now 60%
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
↳ US
+13.0%p
yst 21%
now 34%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
↳ September 11
+12.0%p
yst 57%
now 69%
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
↳ ↓ 77,500
+12.0%p
yst 71%
now 83%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
↳ Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
+9.0%p
yst 38%
now 47%
How much will the iPhone 18 Pro cost?
↳ $1150+
+8.8%p
yst 88%
now 96%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
↳ September 7
+8.5%p
yst 53%
now 62%
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
↳ ↓ 75,000
+8.0%p
yst 48%
now 56%
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
↳ ↓ 72,500
+7.0%p
yst 30%
now 37%
Piauí Governor Election Winner
↳ Rafael Fonteles
+6.5%p
yst 93%
now 99%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
↳ September 30
+6.5%p
yst 25%
now 31%
Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
↳ 180-199
+6.0%p
yst 22%
now 28%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
↳ October 31
+6.0%p
yst 71%
now 77%
Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
↳ 160-179
+5.0%p
yst 18%
now 23%
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
↳ Anthropic
+5.0%p
yst 82%
now 87%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
↳ September 30
+5.0%p
yst 76%
now 82%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
↳ December 31
+4.0%p
yst 60%
now 64%
Berlin State Election Winner
↳ Linke
+4.0%p
yst 45%
now 49%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↳ ↓ 55,000
+3.5%p
yst 17%
now 21%
Abstract FDV above ___ one day after launch?
↳ $800M
+3.5%p
yst 14%
now 17%
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
↳ SPD
+3.5%p
yst 19%
now 23%
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
↳ $500M
+3.0%p
yst 82%
now 85%
Fed rate hike by...?
↳ September Meeting
+3.0%p
yst 50%
now 53%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
↳ Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
+3.0%p
yst 82%
now 85%
Grew less likelyyesterday → today
0%50%100%
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
↳ Alexandru Nazare
−21.0%p
yst 47%
now 26%
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
↳ Below 4.10%
−20.0%p
yst 44%
now 24%
Revelstoke, BC Mayoral Election Winner
↳ Gary Sulz
−19.0%p
yst 71%
now 52%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
↳ September 15
−16.5%p
yst 37%
now 21%
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
↳ September 21
−15.5%p
yst 51%
now 35%
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
↳ ↑ 82,500
−15.0%p
yst 78%
now 63%
＋ Show the rest (24)− Collapse
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
↳ September 30
−13.0%p
yst 63%
now 50%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
↳ September 30
−12.5%p
yst 77%
now 65%
OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
↳ 1500+
−12.0%p
yst 41%
now 28%
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
↳ ↑ 85,000
−11.5%p
yst 56%
now 45%
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
↳ December 31
−10.5%p
yst 23%
now 13%
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
↳ September 30
−10.0%p
yst 30%
now 20%
OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
↳ 1510+
−10.0%p
yst 28%
now 18%
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
↳ September 30
−9.0%p
yst 55%
now 46%
Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
↳ 20%+
−9.0%p
yst 49%
now 40%
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
↳ October 31
−8.5%p
yst 51%
now 42%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?
↳ September 15
−8.5%p
yst 16%
now 8%
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
↳ ↑ 90,000
−8.0%p
yst 25%
now 17%
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
↳ ↑ 87,500
−8.0%p
yst 36%
now 28%
What price will Ethereum hit in September?
↳ ↑ 2,600
−6.5%p
yst 78%
now 72%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
↳ March 31, 2027
−6.0%p
yst 44%
now 38%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
↳ December 31
−5.5%p
yst 19%
now 13%
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
↳ September 21
−5.5%p
yst 29%
now 23%
What price will Bitcoin hit in September?
↳ ↑ 92,500
−5.5%p
yst 16%
now 10%
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↳ ↑ 95,000
−4.5%p
yst 38%
now 33%
What price will XRP hit in September?
↳ ↑ 1.80
−4.5%p
yst 15%
now 10%
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
↳ AfD
−4.0%p
yst 82%
now 78%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
↳ September 30
−4.0%p
yst 32%
now 28%
Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
↳ 240-259
−3.9%p
yst 8%
now 4%
Which company has the best AI model end of September?
↳ OpenAI
−3.8%p
yst 15%
now 12%
Where money and attention went
Left: where the most money moved in 24 hours. Right: what people talked about most.
Top 24h volume
1Israel closes its airspace by...?96%September 302Democratic Presidential Nominee 202818%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez3Republican Presidential Nominee 202850%J.D. Vance4Brazil Presidential Election59%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva5Presidential Election Winner 202825%JD Vance6Next French Presidential Election35%Marine Le Pen7US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?58%December 31
Most discussed
1Brazil Presidential Election59%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva2Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?3.75%December 313Israel closes its airspace by...?96%September 304Iran leadership change by...?27%June 30, 20275Epstein client list released by...?11%October 316Presidential Election Winner 202825%JD Vance7Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?17%December 31
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Bars show 24-hour volume; the number on the right is open events.
Browse all markets
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What is Polymarket?
What is Polymarket? It is the largest prediction market in the world. People stake real money on whether something will happen, and the trading price is the probability the market has settled on — a contract trading at 65 cents means the market gives that outcome a 65% chance. The Polymarket site (polymarket.com) opened in 2020.
This page is a free Polymarket odds tracker: every open market, collected once each morning, laid out in English, Korean and Japanese — what moved, by how much, and where the money went. Election odds, Fed rate odds and crypto markets all sit on one screen. Built and published free by VibeTimes.
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