Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 973,728?
Polymarket traders put "Up 3-7%" at 55.5% on "Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 973,728?". Up 18.5%p from yesterday. $1.5K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 6 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 2.
Most likely right now
Up 3-7%
▲18.556%
CryptoVol $1.5KTotal volume $1.5KLiquidity $326in 3 days (Nov 2)
Current probability
Oct 30 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Up 3-7%
55.5%
▲18.5
Up >7%
41.0%
▼2.5
Up 0-3%
40.5%
▲3.5
Down 0-3%
39.0%
▲2.0
Down >7%
38.0%
▲1.0
Down 3-7%
37.0%
▲0.5
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.