Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series

Most likely right now
Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay”
91%
CultureVol $1.5KTotal volume $19KLiquidity $20Kin 20 days (Sep 14)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay”
91.3%
Martin Short – “Only Murders in the Building”
6.45%
0.8
Jason Segel – “Shrinking”
2.35%
0.9
Steve Carell – “Rooster”
1.10%
0.8
Yahya Abdul-Mateen II – “Wonder Man”
0.80%
1.8

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.