Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

Most likely right now
Mariah Carey
2.083%
CultureVol $234Total volume $165KLiquidity $3.8KComments 3in 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Mariah Carey
83.0%
2.0
Kendrick Lamar
44.0%
12.0
Morgan Wallen
30.0%
1.0
Playboi Carti
24.0%
1.0
Billie Eilish
23.5%
Jack Harlow
13.8%
4.0
Frank Ocean
12.2%
1.2
Doja Cat
11.0%
0.6
Travis Scott
10.5%
1.5
Luke Combs
9.00%
9.5
Rihanna
6.15%
4.6
Future
5.15%
A$AP Rocky
4.65%
0.6
Zach Bryan
4.20%
9.8
Ed Sheeran
2.90%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.