Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?

Polymarket traders put "Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?" at 32.5%. Down 6.5%p from yesterday. It resolves on Jul 1.

Most likely right now
Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
6.533%
WeatherVol -Total volume $41Liquidity $101in 10 months (Jul 1)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
32.5%
6.5

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.