Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?

Most likely right now
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
90%
WeatherVol $218Total volume $6.7KLiquidity $1.4Kin 7 months (Apr 1)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
90.3%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.