KOSPI Forecast: 9000 in the AI Era

Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technology and transformations within the information and communication technology (IT) industry are fueling expectations for improved performance among semiconductor companies, raising the possibility of KOSPI reaching the 9000 mark. This outlook is grounded in the assessment that the AI-centric IT revolution, marking a significant shift after 30 years, could bolster the profit-generating capabilities of South Korean semiconductor firms, potentially redefining the upper ceiling of the domestic stock market. Expanded investments in AI infrastructure are anticipated to enhance the performance of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which analysts predict will lead to a reevaluation of KOSPI's valuation. This analysis was presented by Woori Bank analyst Park Seok-hyun at the 'Woori Finance Forum.'

Analyst Park Seok-hyun identified corporate profits and valuation as the key determinants of stock prices. "Even if we only apply the long-term average multiple, the 9000 mark for KOSPI has become a fully achievable number," he stated. Park analyzed that the forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio (PER) for KOSPI has fallen to levels comparable to previous troughs experienced during periods like the European debt crisis, the 2018 semiconductor downturn, and the COVID-19 pandemic. He believes that current valuation levels, similar to those seen in past crises, present a buying opportunity (a 'valuation call') provided profit forecasts remain stable. He estimated that applying the long-term average PER of 10x yields a KOSPI level of 7900, while a higher average multiple of 11.3x could push it to 8900, suggesting the upside potential for the current cycle is far greater than anticipated.

Meanwhile, analyst Park Seok-hyun added, "War has no direct impact on stock prices. Its effect is zero." The event, the 'Woori Finance Forum,' was hosted by Woori Financial Group at Woori Bank headquarters in Jung-gu, Seoul, on the 15th, with the aim of examining key issues and trends in the financial market for 2026.

Analyst Park projected that KOSPI's operating profit is expected to surge from 250 trillion won in 2024 to approximately 880 trillion won by 2027. Samsung Electronics' operating profit is forecasted to increase from 293 trillion won in 2026 to 352 trillion won in 2027.