June US CPI and FOMC: Key Variables for H2 Financial Markets

The June U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have emerged as crucial benchmarks that will determine the trajectory of domestic stock prices and interest rates in the second half of the year. The key question for the market is whether the inflationary trend will subside and if the Federal Reserve will consequently begin cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, international gold prices, which had been fluctuating while threatening the $4,000 mark, remain a subject of interest regarding a potential market bottom, and the chronic supply shortage in the U.S. housing market continues to be scrutinized.

Global technology stocks and semiconductor companies are recording astronomical operating profits, indicating sustained benefits from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. In the semiconductor sector, the IPO price of SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipt (ADR) surpassed its domestic stock price, reflecting market expectations regarding its dominance in AI memory semiconductors. Caterpillar, a construction machinery manufacturer with 100 years of history, also saw its stock price rise on the back of infrastructure expansion benefits in the AI era. Amidst this trend, capital inflows into U.S. technology funds hit a record second-highest level, showing that Wall Street capital is concentrating on the AI theme.

Meanwhile, conflicts have surfaced within some companies, such as Kioxia, regarding massive performance-based payouts, and changes have been observed in MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor's long-term Bitcoin holding strategy.