DRAM Technology Gap Between Samsung and China's CXMT Stretches Up to 7 Years
The DRAM technology gap between Samsung Electronics and China's CXMT reaches up to seven years. Kim Dong-won, head of research at KB Securities, said in a report on the 15th that the DRAM process technology gap between Samsung Electronics and China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) stands at 5 to 7 years based on mass production timing.
According to KB Securities, 1z (third-generation 10-nanometer-class fine process), CXMT's current mainstay process, entered mass production at Samsung Electronics in September 2019. CXMT began mass production of the 1a (fourth-generation 10-nanometer-class) process this September, while Samsung Electronics started producing it in October 2021 — a gap of about five years.
Kim judged that while the 4F² structure DRAM unveiled by CXMT demonstrates China's technological progress, it is too early to interpret it as securing real market competitiveness. This is because commercializing a new technology requires prior validation of performance, yield, cost competitiveness, customer certification, and mass production capabilities. 4F² is a next-generation highly integrated design standard that reduces cell area by more than 30% compared to the existing 6F², allowing more data to be stored in the same space, but commercial demand and market formation have yet to materialize. Samsung Electronics also announced 4F²-based vertical channel transistor implementation technology in 2023.
Kim assessed that Samsung Electronics holds competitive strengths accumulated through mass production experience with advanced processes, yield stabilization, and customer certification, making the possibility of China narrowing the technology gap limited. "Memory semiconductor competitiveness is determined not simply by new process development, but by stable mass production, yield attainment, and the ability to obtain customer certification," he explained. "While CXMT enhances the technical maturity of its existing processes, Samsung Electronics continues to advance its technology centering on next-generation advanced processes and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)."
Samsung Electronics' stock price has fallen 16% in October, bringing its price-to-earnings ratio (PER) down to around 3 times. Kim said this stock correction phase could present an opportunity to increase holdings, along with expectations of shareholder return policies combining expanded dividends and share buybacks and cancellations.
