Lee Jae-myung's approval rating rebounds to 39%, halting six-week decline

Lee Jae-myung Government Halts Approval Slide, Rebounds to 39% in Gallup Survey

President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating has rebounded by 2 percentage points to 39%. The figure, compiled in a Gallup Korea poll, shows that the downward trend of recent weeks has halted and entered a recovery phase. Party support ratings also held steady, with the Democratic Party at 36% and the People Power Party at 27%, maintaining a 9-percentage-point gap between the ruling and opposition camps.

Analysts say the rebound reflects a combination of emotional resonance and policy response. On the 17th, at around 6:15 p.m., President Lee visited the funeral hall at Soonchunhyang University Bucheon Hospital in Bucheon, Gyeonggi Province, to pay respects to the late Kim Jin-seok, 44, a fire sergeant who died while battling a factory fire in the city. There, Lee knelt before the portrait, offered incense, and personally posthumously awarded the Order of Merit for National Defense (Okgjo class). He was also reported to have fallen into a long, heavy silence upon learning that the fallen firefighter's daughter is seven years old. His mourning gestures, which struck an emotional chord with the public, likely contributed to the consolidation of his support base.

Significance of the Approval Recovery Amid a Busy Political Schedule

At 39% by Gallup's measure, the rating falls short of a majority, but it carries significance in that it has reversed the downward trend. The 2-point rise from the previous survey falls within the typical margin of error of around ±3 points, but the key point is that the trajectory has turned. Before the condolence visit, Lee posted on X (formerly Twitter), writing, "My heart is heavy. I offer my deepest condolences to the deceased." He pledged support for the bereaved family, improvements in firefighters' treatment and working conditions, and a review and reinforcement of safety measures for firefighters. His progression from mourning to concrete improvement pledges appears to have influenced middle-ground assessments.

Political engagements also coincided during the same period. On the 16th, President Lee attended the 47th anniversary ceremony of the Bu-Ma Democratic Uprising at Busan City Hall, where he was visibly moved to tears, and urged the National Assembly to move swiftly on constitutional reform discussions to enshrine the Bu-Ma Uprising and the Gwangju Democratization Movement in the preamble of the constitution. The same day, at the opening ceremony of the 107th National Sports Festival at Jeju World Cup Stadium, he remarked, "No treasure would be too precious for citizens in uniform," emphasizing respect for firefighters and service members. The overlap of democratization legacy and safety-related issues in a single week appears to have broadened his support base.

Ruling-Opposition Landscape and the Fate of Constitutional Reform

The 36%-to-27% party support gap still leaves the opposition at a disadvantage. However, some in the People Power Party have raised the card of impeaching President Lee in a counterattack, escalating the intensity of political attacks, and ruling-opposition conflict is expected to become a variable that increases volatility in approval ratings. Impeachment talk could invite public backlash over its unclear legal grounds, and cautious voices are likely within the party as well.

Constitutional reform is likely to become a major axis of the upcoming governing agenda. Given that President Lee directly urged the National Assembly to include the democratization movements in the constitutional preamble, the ruling party is expected to press forward with tabling a reform bill. Reform requires approval from two-thirds of sitting lawmakers plus a national referendum, making it impossible without opposition cooperation. This is why some interpret the 39% approval rebound as leverage the president has secured for this negotiating phase.

Outlook: Empathy-Driven Approach Faces the Test of Concrete Results

If the empathy-driven approach centered on mourning and tribute fueled the short-term rebound in approval, the remaining task is for tangible outcomes—improved treatment and safety measures—to follow. Having pledged state responsibility for the fallen firefighter's seven-year-old daughter, the speed and specificity of follow-up measures will determine the direction of the next opinion polls. The approval rebound is only a beginning; analysts predict the administration will reach stable footing only after passing two tests: improving firefighters' treatment and negotiating constitutional reform.