Over 90% of Bond Market Experts Expect Rate Hold on the 22nd

93 out of 100 bond market experts expect the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Committee to hold the base rate steady on the 22nd. According to the 'November 2026 Bond Market Sentiment Index (BMSI)' released by the Korea Financial Investment Association on the 20th, the base rate index stood at 93.0, up 12.0 points from the previous survey. 93% of respondents forecast a rate freeze, while 7% expected a hike. The association explained the results reflect expectations that the committee will assess the effects of its two consecutive rate increases.

Expectations of falling market rates have grown. The November rate outlook BMSI rose 24.0 points to 123.0 from the previous month (99.0). 40% of respondents expected rates to decline, up 19 percentage points from 21% the previous month. In contrast, those forecasting a rise fell 5 percentage points to 17%, while those expecting rates to hold steady also fell 14 percentage points to 43%.

Meanwhile, overall investment sentiment in the bond market also improved. The November composite BMSI rose 9.4 points to 99.1 from the previous month (89.7). However, it remained below the baseline of 100, indicating that market sentiment has not fully recovered. The association analyzed that sentiment improved despite a mix of domestic and external variables.

Inflation sentiment moved in the opposite direction. The November price BMSI fell 7.0 points to 93.0 from 100.0 the previous month. Those expecting prices to fall dropped 10 percentage points to 3%, while those expecting them to hold steady rose 13 percentage points to 87%. The association attributed this to the U.S. September Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeding market expectations, along with concerns over rising international oil prices and the possibility of continued upward pressure on core inflation.

Exchange rate sentiment also deteriorated. The November exchange rate BMSI fell 11.0 points to 98.0 from the previous month (109.0). Those expecting the won to weaken rose 9 percentage points to 13% from 4% the previous month.

Economic indicators showed signs of improvement. The industrial production index BMSI rose 19.0 points to 94.0 from the previous month (75.0), while the consumer sentiment index BMSI also climbed 3.0 points to 100.0 from 97.0. The survey was conducted from the 12th to the 15th, targeting 100 professionals involved in bond holdings and operations at 53 institutions.