Democrats in Sight of Net Gain of 4 Senate Seats in Polls
The Democratic Party's chances of winning four more U.S. Senate seats than it currently holds have grown. As of the 24th, 10 days before November's midterm elections (congressional elections held midway through a president's term), multiple election analysis outlets have classified traditionally Trump strongholds such as Ohio, Texas, and Kansas as closely contested 'toss-up' states. Over the past two months, Senate race forecasts in Republican-leaning states that Trump won by double digits in the 2024 presidential election have repeatedly shifted toward the Democrats.
Three outlets — the nonpartisan election analysis outlet the Cook Political Report, the University of Virginia's Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections — classified Ohio as a toss-up as of October. Even Inside Elections, which has been relatively generous to Republicans, downgraded Ohio from 'lean Republican' to a toss-up. Trump carried Ohio by 11 percentage points in the last presidential election. It is also the site of a special election to fill the remainder of the Senate seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. Former three-term Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is challenging Rep. John Husted (R), who has held the seat on an interim basis since Vance's resignation.
With Texas, where Trump led by more than 13 points, also shifting to toss-up status, Ohio and Texas have become Trump strongholds classified as toss-ups by all three election analysis outlets. The biggest classification shift has come in Kansas. Trump won the state by roughly 16 points, and it was rated likely or solid Republican until August before being reclassified as a toss-up in October.
The U.S. Senate currently stands at 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents), giving the GOP a six-seat majority. Because the vice president, a Republican who serves as Senate president, breaks 50-50 ties, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and take control. All three election analysis outlets rate North Carolina as Democratic-favored or likely Democratic. If Democrats win three additional seats among the Republican-held seats in Ohio, Maine, Alaska, Texas, Iowa, and Kansas, they would seize control of the Senate.
National polls have also confirmed the Democratic advantage. In a New York Times/Siena College survey (October 12–19), Democrats led Republicans 52% to 41%, an 11-point gap that widened from September (51% to 43%). A CNN/SSRS poll (October 15–18) also showed Democrats at 49% and Republicans at 39%, the widest gap since just before the 2020 presidential election. President Trump's approval rating stood at 32% in the CNN poll and 31% in a Reuters poll, each the lowest on record for those surveys.
Jessica Taylor, the Cook Political Report's Senate editor, analyzed that rising fuel costs and persistent inflation have made Trump a liability even in Republican-leaning states. The Cook Political Report diagnosed that discontent with the federal and state governments' economic response has been especially pronounced in Midwestern Republican strongholds such as Ohio, Nebraska, and Kansas, and polling in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa found Democratic candidates more trusted on corruption, prices, and the response to gasoline prices.
