Fed Decision in December?
Polymarket traders put "25 bps increase" at 75.5% on "Fed Decision in December?". Up 1.0%p from yesterday. $147K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 10.
Most likely right now
25 bps increase
▲1.076%
EconomyVol $147KTotal volume $2.9MLiquidity $808Kin 2 months (Dec 10)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
25 bps increase
75.5%
▲1.0
No change
22.5%
▼1.0
50+ bps increase
2.85%
–
25 bps decrease
1.05%
–
50+ bps decrease
0.45%
–
Probability over time
25 bps increase
No change
50+ bps increase
25 bps decrease
50+ bps decrease
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
