Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released on...?

Polymarket traders put "On or prior to September 1" at 25.0% on "Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released on...?". $1.8K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 16 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 15.

Most likely right now
On or prior to September 1
25%
TechVol $1.8KTotal volume $1.8KLiquidity $4.8Kin 15 days (Sep 15)
Current probability

Sep 1 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
On or prior to September 1
25.0%
September 2
23.0%
September 3
23.0%
September 7
14.0%
September 4
11.0%
No release by September 15
10.5%
September 11
8.50%
September 10
8.00%
September 14
7.00%
September 15
6.50%
September 8
6.00%
September 9
5.75%
September 5
5.05%
September 12
5.00%
September 6
4.50%
September 13
3.40%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.