Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Polymarket traders put "1" at 72.5% on "Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?". Up 2.0%p from yesterday. $454 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 6 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 31.
Most likely right now
1
▲2.073%
TechVol $454Total volume $3.4MLiquidity $146KComments 27in 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
1
72.5%
▲2.0
2
23.5%
▼1.5
3
2.05%
–
4
0.95%
–
6 or lower
0.75%
–
5
0.15%
–
Probability over time
1
2
3
4
6 or lower
5
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
