CRINKs Alliance's Limits: China, Russia Watch Passively as Iran Faces Attacks
Amid the clash between the United States, Israel, and Iran, the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea (CRINKs) alliance is revealing its limitations, adopting a passive, watchful stance. Iran, along with North Korea, has supported Russia's war in Ukraine for over two years. Since the conflict began, Iran has transformed into a supplier of Russian arms. Iran has been supplying Shahed drones and other weapons to Russia since the fall of 2022, and shared its illicit trading network, built over the past decade using its 'shadow fleet,' with Russia. The bilateral trade volume has more than doubled since before the war, nearing $5 billion.
Russia, however, is reportedly not supplying Iran with advanced fighter jets, air defense systems, or precision-guided munitions. Its support is limited to sharing intelligence on US military assets in the Middle East and providing upgraded drone technology. With Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy facilities in neighboring Gulf states, international oil prices have surged, bringing significant profits to Russia. Antonie Costa, President of the European Council, described Russia as the 'sole beneficiary of the Iran war.' The price of Russian Urals crude oil, which averaged $52 per barrel in January-February before the conflict, rose to $70-$80 per barrel in March. According to a research institute at the Kyiv School of Economics, Russia has been earning at least 970 billion won daily from oil and gas sales since the conflict began.
The United States is reportedly considering diverting weapons originally slated for Ukraine as its own key weapons stockpiles are rapidly depleted by the Iran conflict. Among the items under review are Patriot and THAAD interceptor missiles. In the initial 16 days of the conflict, the US expended over 11,000 munitions, costing $26 billion. Analyses suggest that at the current rate of expenditure, some critical weapon stockpiles could be depleted within a month.
This depletion of weapon stockpiles raises concerns that it could weaken the US's ability to contain China in the long term. The US's weapon shortage is seen as leading to a broader security vacuum, consequently diminishing its capacity to counter China. Despite the US designating containment of China as its top security priority in its National Security Strategy late last year, the Iran conflict has led to the redeployment of air defense assets from US Forces Korea and Marines from US Forces Japan. The Iran war has created a favorable situation for China ahead of President Donald Trump's visit to Beijing, postponed to May 14-15. China has been countering US tariff pressure with controls on rare earth exports, and the Iran conflict has strengthened its negotiating leverage with the US using rare earths.
US allies in Asia and Europe are facing a double burden from soaring oil prices and pressure to engage militarily, leading to friction between the US and its allies.