AI Drones Reshape 'Mosaic Warfare,' Civilian Tech Becomes Core of Defense Industry

The advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and drone technology is transforming the landscape of modern warfare into 'Mosaic Warfare.' Innovative technologies developed in the civilian sector are emerging as key factors determining national security and the future of the defense industry.

In an interview with News Tomato, RIO Institute CEO Lee Dae-sik analyzed the era of 'Mosaic Warfare,' which moves away from traditional large-scale, army-centric conflicts. He described a paradigm where tens of thousands of micro-organized units (drones, robots, etc.) respond autonomously, controlled by AI. He emphasized that South Korea's exported weapons are the last versions of an older generation, and cutting-edge drones and AI are the core of the defense industry. He also stated that creating an ecosystem for civilian venture companies to enter the sector is the path to safeguarding both the economy and security.

Lee identified the Ukraine war and the Iran conflict as testing grounds for AI-based Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies. He explained that systems linking Starlink communication, AI analysis, and drone strikes, as well as Palantir's intelligence analysis and Claude LLM utilization, are achieving cost-effective results in actual warfare. Lee noted that the U.S. formalized its strategy toward AI and distributed combat in a 2000 RAND Corporation report and the Obama administration's 'Third Offset Strategy' in 2014. He added that this led to projections that large-scale armies might not be necessary after 2040.

Despite the progress in cutting-edge technology, it has been pointed out that technology itself can become useless without institutional and organizational innovation. For South Korea, recently ranked fifth globally in military power, a major transformation of its organizations and industries is urgently needed. Considering North Korea is gaining drone production and combat experience from Russia, a horizontal and flexible organizational structure that breaks down inter-agency silos and operates in a task-force manner is essential for responding to AI warfare. The analysis suggests that outdated organizations lacking drone production and utilization capabilities cannot handle AI warfare, and a shift in the defense industry towards AI and software is crucial for future security.