China's CXMT Expected to See Q3 Revenue Surge Nearly Sevenfold
CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies), a Chinese memory chipmaker, has provisionally posted third-quarter revenue roughly seven times higher than a year earlier. Based on the January-September preliminary earnings outlook CXMT released on the 16th, its Q3 revenue is estimated at 114.7 billion to 119.7 billion yuan (about 23-24 trillion won). Analysts attribute the jump to surging memory demand driven by expanded AI server investment, which has triggered a shortage of DRAM (computer memory chips) alongside rising prices. According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, CXMT's share of global DRAM revenue jumped from 4% to 10% in one year. During the same period, Chinese NAND flash (data storage chip) maker Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) also climbed to the world's No. 3 position in shipment share.
The two companies are moving to cross into each other's core businesses as they seek to transform into comprehensive memory suppliers. According to industry sources on the 23rd, CXMT is pursuing NAND research and development, while YMTC has begun developing DRAM. The moves are seen as an effort by both companies, which have focused on commodity products, to broaden their business scope. CXMT raised substantial funds through its stock market listing in July.
The pace of capacity expansion is also rapid. Semiconductor analysis firm SemiAnalysis projects that CXMT's monthly DRAM wafer production capacity will grow from about 350,000 wafers at the end of this year to 420,000 by the end of 2027 and 500,000 by the end of 2028. If so, the company would account for roughly 17% of global DRAM production capacity in 2027. However, this is based on production equipment, and SemiAnalysis estimates CXMT's 2027 shipment share at around 12% in terms of data capacity.
A technology gap still remains. CXMT's DDR5 products are known to carry manufacturing costs per unit of data capacity more than 30% higher than those of Korean and US rivals. YMTC employs 4,796 R&D personnel, more than 30% of its total workforce, has invested 14.2 billion yuan in research and development over the past three years, and holds 5,611 registered invention patents. YMTC is countering US export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment with its proprietary wafer bonding technology, "Xtacking."
Some in the industry predict that competition with Korean companies could intensify after 2027-2028, when China's new fab operations come into full swing.
