Government Approval Ratings Point to Ruling Party Advantage in Local Elections

With the 9th National Simultaneous Local Elections just one month away, a majority win for ruling party candidates is increasingly forecast, linked to the national governance momentum of the Lee Jae-myung administration. The 9th National Simultaneous Local Elections, a symbol of grassroots democracy, are nearing a critical point for the reshuffling of local power, including 16 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial positions nationwide. As this election is the first nationwide contest since the launch of the Lee Jae-myung administration in June last year, its results are interpreted as an evaluation of the government's performance since its inauguration and are closely tied to national governance momentum.

The Democratic Party of Korea is leveraging President Lee Jae-myung's approval ratings in the high 60s, emphasizing national stability and a "worker" narrative. They are stressing the need to judge the People Power Party's local governments from the 2022 local elections. Conversely, the People Power Party argues that they must put the Democratic Party's legislative and policy pursuits on trial to check their unilateral actions. A poll released by Korea Gallup on the 1st showed that 46% of respondents expected a majority win for ruling party candidates, 16 percentage points higher than the 30% who expected a majority win for opposition candidates, supporting the trend of ruling party advantage, and this gap is widening compared to previous surveys.

This local election, held concurrently with by-elections for National Assembly seats in 14 constituencies nationwide, is drawing attention as a 'mini general election level' contest critical for both ruling and opposition parties. A trend of conservative consolidation is detected in traditional conservative strongholds such as Daegu, Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK). In Daegu, a competition is underway between People Power Party candidate Chu Kyung-ho and Democratic Party candidate Kim Boo-kyum. In Busan, Democratic Party candidate Jeon Jae-soo faces People Power Party candidate Park Hyung-joon. In Seoul, Democratic Party candidate Jung Won-o is competing against People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon.

The bullish stock market, with the KOSPI nearing 7,000 points, is acting as a factor that suppresses the prominence of real estate issues as an election topic. Election alliances and candidate unification are being discussed as variables that could determine victory or defeat in areas like Ulsan, Sejong, Pyeongtaek in Gyeonggi, and Buk-gu, Busan.

The results of these local elections and by-elections are connected to the future political paths of party leaders and prominent political figures. The potential return to parliamentary seats for Cho Kuk, leader of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party; Han Dong-hoon, former leader of the People Power Party; and Song Young-gil, former leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, are points of interest.