President Lee Jae-myung's Approval Rating Hits Dead Heat Amid Governing Momentum Concerns

President Lee Jae-myung Faces Concerns Over Weakening Governing Momentum in Second Year Amid Approval Rating 'Dead Heat'

President Lee Jae-myung's approval rating has recorded a 'dead heat' for the first time since his inauguration, with negative evaluations surpassing positive ones, heightening concerns about weakening governing momentum in his second year in office. According to the results of a regular public opinion poll by Realmeter released on the 22nd, President Lee's job performance received a 46.7% positive rating, while negative evaluations stood at 49.7%. This marks the first time since his inauguration that negative evaluations have exceeded positive ones, and it is also the first time his approval rating has fallen into the 40% range.

This decline in approval ratings is analyzed as a result of the downward trend that intensified after the June 3 local elections. A sense of crisis is palpable within and outside the presidential office, with concerns that this alienation of public sentiment could lead to a weakening of future governing momentum. Notably, the People Power Party is intensifying its offensive, citing court rulings on allegations of President Lee Jae-myung's 'salmon and drinking party' and asserting that proceeding with the cancellation of the indictment could constitute grounds for presidential impeachment. In this regard, Shin Dong-wook, a Supreme Council member of the People Power Party, criticized the Democratic Party for attempting to cover up the allegations to protect President Lee Jae-myung. Meanwhile, the People Power Party has raised the level of its political response by forming a 'Special Committee to Prevent Cancellation of President Lee Jae-myung's Trial' and holding its first meeting.

From an economic and social perspective, the Lee Jae-myung administration has put forth a policy direction of 'Transition to a National Startup Era' to resolve the 'K-shaped growth' structure characterized by deepening polarization. However, there are assessments that concrete indicators of tangible achievements have not yet been sufficiently presented. Amidst this situation, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon has requested a meeting with President Lee Jae-myung to discuss real estate policy, signaling the need for discussions on policy issues.

Blue House Reshuffle and Divided Reactions from the Political Sphere

President Lee Jae-myung has shown moves to restore governing momentum by making changes to senior Blue House appointments as he enters his second year in office. Through this reshuffle, Han Chan-sik, a former prosecutor, was appointed Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs, and Kim Kyung-ja was appointed Senior Secretary for Social Affairs. However, criticism has been raised that appointing a former prosecutor for the third consecutive term as Senior Secretary for Civil Affairs is a 'blatant declaration of oppression against the opposition party.' The People Power Party also raised its voice in criticism regarding the appointment of lawyer Park Ji-young as Secretary for Judicial System Affairs at the Blue House, noting her background as a former prosecutor and a special prosecutor for rebellion. Along with the observation that these personnel changes are for a change of political tide, opinions are emerging that genuine personnel reform is needed.

Divided reactions are also emerging within the opposition parties regarding this Blue House reshuffle. While some express concerns that prosecutorial reform is regressing, Representative Chung Jin-suck emphasized that the Democratic Party's victory in the local elections was possible due to the existence of a 'party like the Himalayas,' adhering to his candidacy for the August 17 party convention and a member-centric line. This is interpreted as a statement revealing differences in party lines. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum suggested the difficulty of the current situation, stating, 'What can the president accomplish if they are shaken?'

Upon returning from his recent European tour, President Lee Jae-myung emphasized seeking joint responses amid the upheaval of the international order. On the 21st, he highlighted an increase in national competitiveness rankings and stressed his unwavering sense of responsibility for national governance, appealing to the public to 'gather more strength towards a nation of global citizens, an indispensable South Korea, and to unite beyond small differences.' He positively assessed South Korea's rise to 21st place, a six-spot jump from the previous year, in the national competitiveness evaluation published by the Swiss International Institute for Management Development (IMD), attributing the success to the efforts of the people.

Future Outlook and Key Issues

President Lee Jae-myung's declining approval ratings are highly likely to become a burden on his overall governance moving forward. In particular, the 'dead heat' where negative evaluations precede positive ones is leading to analyses that it could result in a lame-duck phenomenon. Park Jie-won, a Democratic Party lawmaker, referred to President Lee as the Democratic Party's 'most precious asset,' emphasizing the importance of party unity. The key challenge ahead will be whether the personnel changes within the Blue House can actually lead to a recovery of governing momentum and whether this can, in turn, regain public favor.

Furthermore, the court's ruling on the 'salmon and drinking party' allegations and the political wrangling surrounding it are expected to continue. Given that the People Power Party is linking this to presidential impeachment, the impact of judicial risks on governance cannot be overlooked. Alongside this, if national tasks such as resolving economic polarization and 'Transition to a National Startup Era' do not yield concrete results, the downward trend in approval ratings could accelerate. Therefore, the Lee Jae-myung administration faces the challenge of overcoming the crisis through tangible policy achievements and enhanced communication with the public.