IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 3.0% Amid Middle East Conflict Aftermath

In its 'World Economic Outlook (WEO)' report released on the 8th (local time), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected this year's global economic growth rate at 3.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from its April forecast, citing the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. This downward adjustment follows consecutive revisions, from 3.3% in January to 3.1% in April, reflecting the influence of the Middle East war. However, the analysis suggests that demand from the tech cycle, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), is partially offsetting this decline.

Looking at country-specific forecasts, Korea is expected to grow by 2.6% this year and 2.5% next year, representing a significant upward revision from the April projections (1.9% and 2.1%, respectively). The U.S. maintained its existing outlook for this year at 2.3%, while next year's forecast was slightly raised to 2.2%. The global inflation rate was projected at 4.7% for this year.

Additionally, the IMF revealed that this forecast assumes the resumption of transit through the Strait of Hormuz in mid-July and a return to pre-war levels by March 2027.