President Lee Jae-myung Accepts Term Shortening, Pushes for Constitutional Amendment to 4-year Term with Re-election... Approval Rating at 44%, Lowest Since Inauguration

Strategic Background Behind President Lee Jae-myung's Push for a 4-year Re-election Term

President Lee Jae-myung has chosen constitutional amendment as a direct breakthrough card to navigate his lowest approval rating since taking office. Through recent Cabinet meetings and meetings with senior secretaries, the President reaffirmed his determination to pursue amending the current single five-year term to a four-year term with re-election (or consecutive terms) as the administration’s top priority. Notably, he made a groundbreaking proposal, stating that he is willing to accept shortening his own presidential term if necessary to secure the driving force for the amendment. This move is interpreted as a calculated bid to regain control of the political landscape by citing the need to overcome the abuses of the "imperial presidency" and ensure administrative continuity.

According to a survey conducted by Gallup Korea from the 11th to the 13th, President Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating for state affairs fell by 7 percentage points from the previous survey to 44%. This marks the lowest figure since his inauguration, and with negative ratings reaching 46%, a "dead cross" phenomenon occurred where negative evaluations surpassed positive ones for the first time. Amid analysis that confusion in real estate policy and concerns over a supply cliff are the main causes of the decline, the President is seeking to turn the tide through the grand narrative of restructuring the governance system. The Blue House has determined that a four-year re-election system with strengthened parliamentary powers is currently the alternative with the highest public acceptability, aiming to resolve political uncertainty through this change.

Correlation Between Shedding the 'Imperial Presidency' and Completing the Administrative Capital

President Lee Jae-myung has long expressed deep agreement regarding the problems of power concentration inherent in the imperial presidential system. The President emphasized that if a four-year re-election system is introduced, it will not only maintain policy consistency but also realize responsible politics through the people's re-evaluation. This discussion on constitutional amendment goes beyond a simple restructuring of power and runs parallel to the core policy of completing the administrative capital. During a Cabinet meeting, the President reiterated his plan to complete the presidential office in Sejong City within his term, presenting a blueprint to simultaneously alleviate the concentration in the capital region and achieve balanced national development.

President Lee Jae-myung stated that building a system to strengthen the National Assembly’s power and check the unilateralism of the executive branch is essential for the maturation of democracy. His remarks that he would not hesitate to shorten his term for the sake of constitutional amendment are interpreted as an intention to suggest that the discussion is a genuine national reform task, not a political strategy.

This push for constitutional amendment also contains the possibility of cooperation with the opposition. Recently, the President met with key opposition party lawmakers, as well as Kim Tae-ho, a non-mainstream member of the ruling People Power Party, for golf rounds, demonstrating a move to gather opinions from across the political spectrum. The presence of key figures within the People Power Party, such as Rep. Jo Kyung-tae, who prioritize personal conviction over party lines, is expected to act as a variable in the amendment discussions. As Rep. Jo has voiced reformist opinions—such as voting in favor of the three special counsel bills or calling for a conscience vote on presidential impeachment—the formation of a constitutional amendment alliance crossing party lines is likely to be a key indicator dividing the future political landscape.

7 SEEDs for New Industry Growth and Economic Structure Changes

Behind the political discussion on constitutional amendment lies a strategy to secure future growth engines to improve the national economic structure. President Lee Jae-myung strongly instructed the preparation of "7 SEEDs"—seven advanced technologies intended to take the helm after the semiconductor industry—as the next generation growth engine during a report meeting on future growth dynamics held at the Blue House. This is not merely a slogan but is being concretized into specific industrial policies, such as the full-fledged implementation of the Honam semiconductor cluster project and the development of container ships equipped with Small Modular Reactors (SMR). The President's practical interest, including inquiring about the manufacturing cost of SMRs, reflects his strong will to secure technological sovereignty.

Such economic policies also serve as practical means to rebound state affairs approval ratings. While some in the political circle, including Rep. Song Young-gil, pinpoint the real estate policy failure as the root cause of the decline, the government calculates that it will find a path for economic vitality by fostering future industries like the 7 SEEDs. In particular, the announcement of a plan to secure housing supply by targeting the relocation of Taereung Country Club and Gwacheon Country Club for construction in 2029 is a move to soothe public sentiment regarding real estate. This result stems from a sense of crisis that if the supply cliff issue persisting since 2022 is not resolved, the momentum for constitutional amendment itself could be lost.

Market Prospects and Investment Implications Amid Accelerating Constitutional Amendment Politics

The political sphere is expected to be embroiled in fierce debate over whether to accept the President's proposal for term shortening. If the amendment materializes, political uncertainty may temporarily increase as the cycles of presidential and National Assembly elections are adjusted. However, in the long term, if policy continuity is secured through a four-year re-election system, it is likely to act as a positive signal for companies establishing long-term investment plans. In particular, advanced technology fields such as the semiconductor cluster and SMR industries, which the government is strongly promoting, are expected to solidify their status as national strategic industries regardless of the constitutional discussion.

In the investment market, interest is expected to rise in high-tech stocks related to the government's 7 SEED policy. The completion of the administrative capital and the construction of the Sejong office are likely to act as long-term positives for the real estate and infrastructure markets in the Chungcheong region. However, as the amendment must be pushed on a fragile foundation of a 44% approval rating, risks remain where policy speed could be adjusted depending on opposition backlash and public opinion trends. Experts advise watching closely how the President's term shortening card takes shape in the actual legislative process and analyzing the impact of political volatility on economic indicators. Ultimately, the success or failure of the amendment depends on how the power restructuring proposed by President Lee Jae-myung connects to the actual improvement of the people's quality of life.