Ahn Gyu-bak Estimates North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal at Around 80 Warheads...Divergence from U.S. and Swedish Assessments

While U.S. President Donald Trump specifically cited the number of North Korea's nuclear weapons as '57,' estimates from domestic and international institutions vary significantly. Domestic and foreign institutions offer differing figures on North Korea's nuclear stockpile.

The Swedish think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated in its '2026 SIPRI Yearbook,' published in June, that as of January this year, North Korea possessed 60 nuclear warheads in a 'stored' state, ready for immediate launch. SIPRI noted, 'Information regarding North Korea's nuclear weapon status and capabilities is subject to significant uncertainty.'

The U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) also assessed in a report on 'North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons and Missile Programs' that North Korea has secured enough fissile material to produce up to 90 warheads and that approximately 50 of them have likely already been assembled. It is commonly known that it takes up to about two months to produce a warhead after securing nuclear material.

Estimates within South Korea also vary. Minister of National Defense Ahn Gyu-bak stated during a plenary meeting of the National Assembly's National Defense Committee that North Korea is estimated to possess 80 to 120 nuclear weapons. Lee Sang-gyu, director of the Nuclear Security Research Center at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), suggested last November the possibility of possessing a total of around 127 warheads, including 115 to 131 uranium-based warheads and 15 to 19 plutonium-based warheads.

President Trump's remarks mark a departure from his previous statements. In a White House press conference in April, he referred to North Korea's nuclear arsenal as '45.'