National Assembly Data Analysis: Democratic Party 100% United, People's Power Shows Cracks

An analysis of National Assembly voting data reveals that the cohesion of the ruling and opposition parties in the first half of 2026 converged at an ultra-high level of around 98%.

According to a tracking of monthly voting coincidence rates by party, the Democratic Party saw a steady rise or maintained its standing for five consecutive months, rising from 99.3% in March to 100.0% in July. During the same period, the People's Power Party fluctuated between 98.4%, 97.3%, 99.5%, 98.4%, and 97.6%, while the Rebuilding Korea Party recorded unanimous votes in May and July. Even independent lawmakers showed near-perfect consistency rates approaching 100% in most months. It is worth noting first that this indicator, which measures lawmakers solely based on voting behavior rather than ideological inclination, can yield conclusions different from public perceptions.

Ruling Party Unites, Opposition Party Shows Slight Fractures

The most striking contrast lies in the trajectories of the Democratic Party and the People's Power Party. The Democratic Party rose from 99.3% in March to 99.7% in April and 99.9% in May, reaching a perfect 100% in June and July. Votes opposing the party line have virtually vanished. In contrast, the People's Power Party hovered in a range 1 to 2 percentage points lower than the Democratic Party on average, showing two distinct declines in April (97.3%) and July (97.6%).

The numerical difference may appear small. However, in a parliament of hundreds of members, a 2 percentage point gap implies that a few members repeatedly defect in every vote. This suggests that the opposition leadership may have tacitly accepted defections on certain bills, or that some lawmakers acted based on constituency or factional considerations on controversial issues. However, this data alone cannot identify which lawmakers defected or on which bills the splits occurred.

Unexpected Trends from Rebuilding Korea Party and Independents

There are also points that defy conventional wisdom. Contrary to the expectation that minor parties or independents, with weak negotiating power in the Assembly, would see their votes scatter, the Rebuilding Korea Party hit 100% in May after recording 98.8% in March, dipped slightly to 97.9% in June, and returned to unanimous voting in July. Independent lawmakers also maintained complete unanimity every month except for a 97.5% rate in June. Even lawmakers without party affiliation demonstrated discipline similar to that of major parties in actual votes. This implies that independent votes move largely in the same direction as specific party lines, suggesting that the actual political landscape in the Assembly may be simpler than the number of registered parties indicates.

What High Cohesion Says and Does Not Say

High cohesion does not necessarily mean politics is democratic. Rather, it can be interpreted as a signal that voting is strongly disciplined under the control of the party leadership. The Democratic Party’s continuous upward curve shows that leadership control has tightened or that internal disagreements on contentious bills have not surfaced. The fluctuation in the People's Power Party may reflect relatively flexible leadership or a state where internal coordination is less finalized.

There are clear limitations to keep in mind. This indicator only reflects plenary voting behavior. It does not capture defections during the bill proposal stage, amendment negotiations in standing committees, or actions such as declarative statements. Furthermore, if the process of forming party positions was competitive, high cohesion does not necessarily mean uniformity. As Justice Antonin Scalia remarked that a person who hasn't made enemies isn't a good person, in the National Assembly, conversely, not making enemies (defectors) appears to be solidifying as a survival strategy. The next point of interest for judging leadership control will be whether the cohesion curves of both parties break during the second-half budget bill process.