As the Chuseok Holiday Ends, Live Rounds Head for 14 Million 'Ant' Accounts
When the holiday break ends, the fourth-quarter stock market opens. Attention has turned to the flow of funds into the accounts of 14 million individual investors. As investor sentiment, loaded up during the long holiday, converges with live rounds in the form of holiday bonuses and payouts, a growing number of investors are weighing how to capture the market right after Chuseok.
The market rises after the holiday—15 times out of 22. On the 23rd, just before the holiday, the KOSPI closed at 7,080.92, up 63.01 points (0.90%) from the previous session, marking a fourth straight day of gains. The index rebounded despite lingering wait-and-see sentiment, raising expectations for the fourth-quarter rally. Daishin Securities analyzed 22 Chuseok holidays from 2004 to 2025 and found that the KOSPI rose an average of 1.34% in the five trading days after the holiday, advancing 15 times. This means the pattern of 'weak before, strong after'—where cautious trading ahead of the holiday gives way to reviving trading volume—continued after the break. Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, "We maintain the view that heightened volatility before the Chuseok holiday presents an opportunity to increase exposure."
Brokerages singled out semiconductors as the leading sector with proven earnings and momentum. Kim Dae-jun, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, diagnosed that "strong September exports are supporting the rally as AI investment momentum continues." Lee Jae-won, a researcher at Yuanta Securities, also noted that "evidence of actual usage growth and supply shortages in the AI industry keeps accumulating." Some analysts say Micron's earnings release, scheduled for the 30th local time, could drive Samsung Electronics and SK hynix to break out of the top of their trading ranges.
For the KOSDAQ, brokerages recommended a selective approach focused on small- and mid-cap materials, parts, and equipment stocks and robotics, while keeping the portfolio's core anchored in large-cap KOSPI semiconductor stocks with high earnings visibility. Na Seung-du, a researcher at SK Securities, analyzed that if the materials-parts-equipment and robotics sectors transform into earnings-driven plays and combine with the government's KOSDAQ revitalization policies, net buying by institutions and foreigners could follow. He also stressed that given ongoing volatility from major macro events—such as the results of U.S.-China trade talks on the 28th and the release of U.S. August PCE price data on the 30th—investors should avoid aggressive chasing and focus on stocks backed by earnings and market flows.
