Insurrection and the Constitutional Court Await Outside the Courtroom as Lee Jae-myung's Appeal Ruling Nears

The appellate ruling in the election law violation case of Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, will be handed down at the Seoul High Court at 2 p.m. on the 26th. Lee faced a criminal trial for election law violations at the first instance. The focus of the legal battle has been on whether Lee lied — that is, the truthfulness of his statements. In a written statement submitted to the court, Lee pleaded: "It is not only my personal desperation with my political life at stake — the entire nation is watching this case."

The possible outcomes of the ruling fall into three scenarios. First, if the fine of 1 million won or more is upheld, Lee will be stripped of his right to run for office, leaving the outcome effectively unchanged. In the worst case, if the Supreme Court rules before the presidential election, the proximity of the election could result in his disqualification as a candidate. Second, if the fine is reduced to below 1 million won, Lee would escape his legal jeopardy. The Supreme Court does not review the severity of sentences. Third, there is also the possibility of an acquittal.

If the sentence is finalized, the ripple effects would be concrete. Lee was sentenced at the first instance to one year in prison, suspended for two years. If the sentence is confirmed, he would be barred from running in elections for 10 years, and the Democratic Party would have to return 43.4 billion won in campaign subsidies.

Political circles are paying close attention to the possibility that this ruling could intersect with the impeachment situation. Along with the question of former President Yoon Suk-yeol's removal from office, an impeachment motion has been filed against former Acting President Choi Sang-mok, and there are calls that a new motion could be brought against Acting President Han Duck-soo as well. Some predict that if Lee receives a sentence stripping him of his right to run for office, calls for a "chain of impeachments" would gain momentum. A Democratic Party official said, "The mood within the party, which had been confident of a unanimous 8-0 ruling in favor of impeachment, is wavering."