The Key to Lee Jae-myung's Approval Recovery Lies with Centrists
President Lee Jae-myung's declining approval ratings have, for now, come to a halt. In a regular survey released on the 30th by the Korea Society Opinion Institute (KSOI), positive assessments of the president's performance stood at 38.5% and negative ones at 57.8%, a slight rebound from two weeks earlier (35.5% positive, 59.4% negative). However, when the figures are broken down by political orientation, it becomes clear that a particular group drove the decline.
The real issue is not the level but the size of the drop. In Gallup Korea surveys, President Lee's approval rating fell from 63% positive and 28% negative in May to 38% positive and 53% negative in September. The decline was not confined to any particular region or age group; it occurred simultaneously among conservatives, centrists, and progressives. Breaking the figures down by orientation reveals who is defecting. Centrist evaluations flipped from 64% positive and 26% negative in May to 37% positive and 53% negative in September. Progressive approval also fell from 91% to 62%, but it was the loss of centrist support that had the greatest impact on the overall numbers.
This diagnosis is corroborated by objective analysis. Professor Han Kyu-seop of Seoul National University's Department of Communication analyzed 545 approval rating surveys registered with the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission from early in President Lee's term through September 22, and published his findings as an op-ed in the JoongAng Ilbo on October 1. As of July 1, 2025, early in his term, roughly 33% of progressives (79.2% to 53.4%) and about 40% of centrists (65.9% to 39.5%) had shifted from support to non-support, the professor noted, analyzing that "the loss of centrist support was a major cause of the decline in approval ratings."
Gallup Korea did not release a survey during the Chuseok holiday. Its next results will be announced on October 9.
President Lee and the Democratic Party now face the task of deciding whether to anchor their approval recovery in the core support base or among centrists. The "rabbit in hand versus rabbit in the bush" debate is an old proposition in politics. The conventional wisdom holds that primaries require courting the loyal base while nationwide elections require winning over the broader public, but the answer has always varied depending on the environment politicians and parties face, the electoral landscape, and the mood of the electorate.
Whether President Lee can reclaim the centrists he has lost will become clear in the next survey results.
