Bitcoin Shorts Liquidated in Force as Odds of Fed October Rate Hold Hit 82.3%
Bitcoin traded at $86,235, up 1.43% over 24 hours, as the probability of the U.S. central bank (the Fed) holding interest rates steady in October was pegged at 82.3%. The market puts the chance of a Fed rate hold in October at 82.3%, with a 17.2% probability of a hike. Expectations of a rate freeze are underpinned by slowing U.S. employment data. U.S. nonfarm payrolls for September, released on the 2nd (local time), rose by 29,000, falling short of the market forecast of 84,000.
'Short liquidations' — investors who had bet on falling prices closing out positions to avoid losses — continued, driving an upward move in the cryptocurrency market led by Bitcoin. Liquidations among the top 20 coins totaled $129.17 million, of which short positions accounted for 78.63%, according to exchange data. Liquidations were concentrated in the two largest assets: $72.57 million for Bitcoin and $32.97 million for Ethereum.
Ethereum traded at $2,722, up 0.98% over 24 hours. Altcoins broadly followed higher, though gains were uneven: XRP rose 1.32%, Solana 0.43%, Dogecoin 3.15%, and Hyperliquid 2.04%, while TRON slipped 0.07%. Bitcoin's market dominance stood at 59.06%, up 0.15 percentage points from the previous day, while Ethereum's share fell 0.01 percentage point to 11.34%. Within the rally, capital flowed into Bitcoin first.
Cryptocurrency derivatives trading volume over the past 24 hours reached $520.6 billion, up 62.62% from the previous day. Total cryptocurrency trading volume was $59.1 billion, while stablecoin volume came to $60.1 billion, up 43.67%. DeFi volume also rose 11.56% to $9 billion.
Trading activity among market participants surged ahead of the Fed's October rate decision, with a continued shift of capital toward Bitcoin.
