HBM Demand Stands at 100, But Supply Is Only 70

Amid the AI data center construction boom, demand for HBM (high bandwidth memory, an ultra-fast semiconductor memory essential for AI computing) has far outpaced supply. Appearing on the 'Financial News' YouTube channel on the 12th, KCGI Asset Management CEO Mok Dae-gyun diagnosed a supply shortage in the memory market, saying, "If demand is 100, supply is only around 70."

He identified rising DRAM (the memory used for a computer's main storage) prices and expanded supply from Chinese companies as the key variables that will shape the market going forward. However, in his view, even if demand continues, the pace of price increases could narrow. "AI investment is continuing and semiconductor companies' profits are growing, but the rate of DRAM price increases could slow down," Mok said. He added, "Next year, the rate of price increases could fall to single digits, and the market sees the possibility that prices could then stagnate or even decline."

DRAM prices were cited as the indicator investors should watch. "Ultimately, price movements matter most," Mok said. "You have to watch how actual selling prices move and how prices expected by the market change." On this front, he added, "How much Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix expand their long-term supply contracts is also important."

On the supply side, the variable is China. "CXMT's production capacity is growing faster than expected," Mok said, explaining that it is necessary to watch the scenario in which increased supply intersects with slowing demand.

Mok analyzed that the two domestic memory makers will feel the effects differently. "SK Hynix is heavily influenced by HBM, while Samsung Electronics has a more diversified business spanning commodity DRAM, foundry, mobile, and home appliances," he said.