Arc FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Polymarket traders put "$500M" at 67.0% on "Arc FDV above ___ one day after launch?". $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 14 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
$500M
–67%
CryptoVol $1.2KTotal volume $75KLiquidity $85KComments 1in 1.2 years (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
$500M
67.0%
–
$800M
62.0%
▲0.5
$1B
62.0%
▲6.5
$2B
49.5%
▲5.0
$3B
39.0%
▲2.0
$6B
33.0%
▲1.5
$4B
32.0%
▲1.5
$8B
24.5%
▲2.0
$5B
21.0%
▼0.5
$7B
11.1%
▲1.5
$9B
9.50%
▼18.0
$15B
7.50%
▼26.0
$10B
5.20%
–
$20B
0.90%
–
Probability over time
$500M
$800M
$1B
$2B
$3B
$6B
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
