Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?

Polymarket traders put "October 31, 2026" at 49.0% on "Chopsticks catch a Starship upper stage by...?". Up 1.0%p from yesterday. There are 3 possible outcomes. It resolves on Nov 1.

Most likely right now
October 31, 2026
1.049%
TechVol -Total volume $1.9KLiquidity $1.4Kin 2 months (Nov 1)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
October 31, 2026
49.0%
1.0
September 30, 2026
18.5%
7.5
August 31, 2026
0.30%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.