EU debt downgrade before 2027?

Polymarket traders put "EU debt downgrade before 2027?" at 21.0%. Down 5.5%p from yesterday. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
EU debt downgrade before 2027?
▼5.521%
EconomyVol -Total volume $1.6KLiquidity $176Comments 2in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
EU debt downgrade before 2027?
21.0%
▼5.5

Probability over time

EU debt downgrade before 2027?
02550751008/259/69/189/249/3010/610/9
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.