How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "5.0%" at 4.5% on "How high will US unemployment go in 2026?". Down 0.9%p from yesterday. $6.5K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Apr 1.
Most likely right now
5.0%
▼0.95%
EconomyVol $6.5KTotal volume $558KLiquidity $23KComments 21in 6 months (Apr 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
5.0%
4.50%
▼0.9
5.5%
2.40%
–
10.0%
1.75%
–
7.0%
1.50%
–
6.0%
0.30%
–
Probability over time
5.0%
5.5%
10.0%
7.0%
6.0%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
