How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "5.0%" at 12.3% on "How high will US unemployment go in 2026?". Unchanged from yesterday. $1 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 5 possible outcomes. It resolves on Feb 1.
Most likely right now
5.0%
–12%
EconomyVol $1Total volume $482KLiquidity $13KComments 21in 5 months (Feb 1)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
5.0%
12.3%
–
5.5%
7.25%
–
6.0%
6.50%
–
10.0%
5.40%
–
7.0%
4.70%
–
Probability over time
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
10.0%
7.0%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
