How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Polymarket traders put "Below 4.0%" at 100.0% on "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?". Unchanged from yesterday. $844 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 16 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
Below 4.0%
–100%
EconomyVol $844Total volume $346KLiquidity $120KComments 3in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Below 4.0%
100.0%
–
Below 4.6%
11.5%
–
Below 4.7%
11.5%
▼3.0
Below 4.5%
5.50%
–
Below 4.4%
4.50%
–
Below 4.3%
3.95%
–
Below 4.2%
2.40%
–
Below 3.9%
1.95%
–
Below 4.1%
1.80%
–
Below 3.8%
1.60%
–
Below 3.6%
1.50%
–
Below 2.0%
1.30%
–
Below 1.0%
1.30%
–
Below 3.7%
1.30%
–
Below 3.5%
1.15%
–
Below 3.0%
0.90%
–
Probability over time
Below 4.0%
Below 4.6%
Below 4.7%
Below 4.5%
Below 4.4%
Below 4.3%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
