How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?
Polymarket traders put "Below 4.76%" at 74.5% on "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?". Up 12.0%p from yesterday. $4.7K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 30.
Most likely right now
Below 4.76%
▲12.075%
EconomyVol $4.7KTotal volume $4.7KLiquidity $6.7Kin 22 days (Sep 30)
Current probability
Sep 8 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Below 4.76%
74.5%
▲12.0
Below 4.73%
60.5%
▲1.0
Below 4.70%
52.5%
▲2.5
Below 4.67%
40.5%
▼7.5
Below 4.64%
38.5%
▼10.5
Below 4.61%
24.5%
▼26.0
Below 4.56%
19.5%
▼27.5
Below 4.51%
15.5%
▼23.5
Below 4.45%
11.5%
▼21.5
Probability over time
Below 4.76%
Below 4.73%
Below 4.70%
Below 4.67%
Below 4.64%
Below 4.61%
2026-09-04 ~ 2026-09-08 · y-axis %
