How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?

Polymarket traders put "Below 4.76%" at 74.5% on "How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in September?". Up 12.0%p from yesterday. $4.7K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Sep 30.

Most likely right now
Below 4.76%
12.075%
EconomyVol $4.7KTotal volume $4.7KLiquidity $6.7Kin 22 days (Sep 30)
Current probability

Sep 8 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Below 4.76%
74.5%
12.0
Below 4.73%
60.5%
1.0
Below 4.70%
52.5%
2.5
Below 4.67%
40.5%
7.5
Below 4.64%
38.5%
10.5
Below 4.61%
24.5%
26.0
Below 4.56%
19.5%
27.5
Below 4.51%
15.5%
23.5
Below 4.45%
11.5%
21.5

Probability over time

Below 4.76%
Below 4.73%
Below 4.70%
Below 4.67%
Below 4.64%
Below 4.61%
02550751009/49/59/69/79/8
2026-09-04 ~ 2026-09-08 · y-axis %

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.