How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Most likely right now
0 (0 bps)
0.787%
EconomyVol $94KTotal volume $49.5MLiquidity $3.9MComments 117in 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
0 (0 bps)
86.6%
0.7
1 (25 bps)
9.50%
2 (50 bps)
2.55%
1.1
3 (75 bps)
0.55%
4 (100 bps)
0.35%
5 (125 bps)
0.25%
6 (150 bps)
0.15%
7 (175 bps)
0.15%
8 (200 bps)
0.15%
9 (225 bps)
0.15%
12+ (300+ bps)
0.15%
10 (250 bps)
0.05%
11 (275 bps)
0.05%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

Other markets in this category

Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.