How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "0 (0 bps)" at 95.5% on "How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?". $16K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 13 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
0 (0 bps)
–96%
EconomyVol $16KTotal volume $54.0MLiquidity $4.2MComments 123in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
0 (0 bps)
95.5%
–
1 (25 bps)
1.75%
–
2 (50 bps)
0.75%
–
3 (75 bps)
0.25%
–
4 (100 bps)
0.25%
–
5 (125 bps)
0.10%
–
6 (150 bps)
0.05%
–
7 (175 bps)
0.05%
–
8 (200 bps)
0.05%
–
9 (225 bps)
0.05%
–
10 (250 bps)
0.05%
–
11 (275 bps)
0.05%
–
12+ (300+ bps)
0.05%
–
Probability over time
0 (0 bps)
1 (25 bps)
2 (50 bps)
3 (75 bps)
4 (100 bps)
5 (125 bps)
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
