How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Polymarket traders put "Below 4.50%" at 83.5% on "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?". Up 22.5%p from yesterday. $8.1K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 31.
Most likely right now
Below 4.50%
▲22.584%
EconomyVol $8.1KTotal volume $8.1KLiquidity $9.1Kin 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Sep 8 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Below 4.50%
83.5%
▲22.5
Below 4.45%
74.5%
▲24.5
Below 4.40%
68.5%
▲18.5
Below 4.35%
57.5%
▲7.5
Below 4.30%
50.5%
▲1.0
Below 4.25%
42.5%
▼7.0
Below 4.20%
36.5%
▼13.0
Below 4.10%
23.5%
▼20.0
Below 4.00%
17.0%
▼20.5
Probability over time
Below 4.50%
Below 4.45%
Below 4.40%
Below 4.35%
Below 4.30%
Below 4.25%
2026-09-04 ~ 2026-09-08 · y-axis %
