How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Polymarket traders put "Below 4.50%" at 45.0% on "How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?". Up 10.5%p from yesterday. $19K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 9 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 31.
Most likely right now
Below 4.50%
▲10.545%
EconomyVol $19KTotal volume $157KLiquidity $27Kin 2 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Oct 23 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Below 4.50%
45.0%
▲10.5
Below 4.45%
32.5%
▲10.0
Below 4.35%
22.5%
▲14.0
Below 4.40%
19.0%
▲4.0
Below 4.30%
14.3%
▲10.7
Below 4.25%
8.85%
▲6.3
Below 4.10%
4.70%
▲2.1
Below 4.00%
3.80%
–
Below 4.20%
3.00%
–
Probability over time
Below 4.50%
Below 4.45%
Below 4.35%
Below 4.40%
Below 4.30%
Below 4.25%
2026-09-04 ~ 2026-10-23 · y-axis %
