How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "0 (0 bps)" at 43.5% on "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?". Down 1.0%p from yesterday. $898 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 6 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 31.
Most likely right now
0 (0 bps)
▼1.044%
EconomyVol $898Total volume $223KLiquidity $72KComments 1in 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
0 (0 bps)
43.5%
▼1.0
1 (25 bps)
39.5%
▲1.0
2 (50 bps)
15.5%
▼0.5
3 (75 bps)
2.55%
–
4 (100 bps)
0.15%
–
5+ (125+ bps)
0.05%
–
Probability over time
0 (0 bps)
1 (25 bps)
2 (50 bps)
3 (75 bps)
4 (100 bps)
5+ (125+ bps)
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
