How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "2 (50 bps)" at 71.0% on "How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?". Up 0.5%p from yesterday. $7.5K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 6 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
2 (50 bps)
▲0.571%
EconomyVol $7.5KTotal volume $938KLiquidity $262Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 12 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
2 (50 bps)
71.0%
▲0.5
1 (25 bps)
21.5%
–
3 (75 bps)
7.70%
–
4 (100 bps)
0.65%
–
5+ (125+ bps)
0.30%
–
0 (0 bps)
0.00%
▼2.5
Probability over time
2 (50 bps)
1 (25 bps)
3 (75 bps)
4 (100 bps)
5+ (125+ bps)
0 (0 bps)
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-12 · y-axis %
