Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
Polymarket traders put "October 7" at 17.8% on "Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?". Down 32.1%p from yesterday. $2.2K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 32 possible outcomes. It resolves on Oct 31.
Most likely right now
October 7
▼32.118%
TechVol $2.2KTotal volume $2.2KLiquidity $18Kin 1 months (Oct 31)
Current probability
Sep 24 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
October 7
17.8%
▼32.1
No release by October 31
16.0%
▼33.5
October 23
15.5%
▼34.5
October 26
12.0%
▼37.5
October 29
12.0%
▼37.5
October 21
11.5%
▼38.0
October 19
11.0%
▼39.5
October 16
10.0%
▼40.0
October 25
8.50%
–
October 6
8.00%
▼42.0
October 9
7.50%
▼43.0
October 13
7.50%
▼42.5
October 14
6.50%
▼43.5
October 15
6.00%
▼44.0
October 17
5.50%
▼44.5
October 18
5.50%
▼44.5
October 24
5.50%
▼44.0
October 28
5.50%
▼44.5
October 30
5.50%
▼44.0
October 31
5.50%
▼44.0
October 8
5.00%
▼45.0
October 10
5.00%
▼45.0
October 12
5.00%
▼45.0
On or prior to October 1
4.50%
▼45.5
October 20
4.50%
▼45.0
October 22
4.00%
▼45.5
October 11
3.75%
▼46.3
October 4
3.60%
▼46.4
October 2
3.45%
▼46.6
October 3
3.40%
▼46.6
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
