Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?

Polymarket traders put "Google" at 38.5% on "Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?". $182 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 13 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.

Most likely right now
Google
–39%
TechVol $182Total volume $182Liquidity $2.5Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability

Oct 2 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Google
38.5%
–
Anthropic
24.5%
–
Meta
13.0%
–
Amazon
11.5%
–
Alibaba
10.9%
–
Nvidia
10.8%
–
Meituan
10.8%
–
Thinky
10.8%
–
Mistral
10.6%
–
Tencent
10.5%
–
Baidu
10.4%
–
MiniMax
10.4%
–
ByteDance
4.05%
–

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.