US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket traders put "US bank failure by December 31, 2026?" at 64.5%. Up 8.5%p from yesterday. $485 traded in the last 24 hours. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
▲8.565%
EconomyVol $485Total volume $503Liquidity $560in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Sep 30 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
64.5%
▲8.5
Probability over time
Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.
