US economic state at the end of 2026?
Polymarket traders put "Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)" at 66.5% on "US economic state at the end of 2026?". $133 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 4 possible outcomes. It resolves on Feb 1.
Most likely right now
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
–67%
EconomyVol $133Total volume $100KLiquidity $5.8KComments 7in 4 months (Feb 1)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
66.5%
–
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
29.0%
▲0.5
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
2.05%
–
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
0.60%
–
Probability over time
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
