US economic state at the end of 2026?
Polymarket traders put "Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)" at 62.5% on "US economic state at the end of 2026?". Down 0.5%p from yesterday. $1.1K traded in the last 24 hours. There are 4 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 31.
Most likely right now
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
▼0.563%
EconomyVol $1.1KTotal volume $73KLiquidity $14KComments 5in 5 months (Jan 31)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
62.5%
▼0.5
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
33.5%
▼1.0
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
4.20%
–
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
0.30%
–
Probability over time
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
