US Trade Deficit in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "800–900B" at 37.0% on "US Trade Deficit in 2026?". Down 0.5%p from yesterday. $30 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on May 1.
Most likely right now
800–900B
▼0.537%
EconomyVol $30Total volume $25KLiquidity $3.0Kin 7 months (May 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
800–900B
37.0%
▼0.5
700–800B
21.5%
▲0.5
900B–1T
16.0%
–
600–700B
10.1%
▼3.9
500–600B
5.05%
–
1T–1.1T
4.20%
–
<500B
2.80%
–
1.1T+
2.40%
▼0.8
Probability over time
800–900B
700–800B
900B–1T
600–700B
500–600B
1T–1.1T
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
