US Trade Deficit in 2026?
Polymarket traders put "800–900B" at 41.5% on "US Trade Deficit in 2026?". Down 1.0%p from yesterday. There are 8 possible outcomes. It resolves on Feb 28.
Most likely right now
800–900B
▼1.042%
EconomyVol -Total volume $24KLiquidity $8.8Kin 6 months (Feb 28)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
800–900B
41.5%
▼1.0
700–800B
29.5%
▲1.5
900B–1T
14.5%
▼0.5
600–700B
8.65%
–
1T–1.1T
5.30%
▲0.7
1.1T+
4.55%
–
500–600B
4.30%
–
<500B
3.20%
–
Probability over time
800–900B
700–800B
900B–1T
600–700B
1T–1.1T
1.1T+
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
