What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?

Most likely right now
Good Morning
15.079%
EconomyVol $2.3KTotal volume $46KLiquidity $28Kin 3 days (Aug 28)
Current probability

Aug 25 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)

0%50%100%
Good Morning
79.0%
15.0
Productivity
76.5%
1.5
Framework
74.5%
3.0
Challenge
70.0%
0.5
Regime
66.5%
11.0
AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times
65.5%
0.5
CapEx / Capital Expenditure
64.5%
1.5
Independent / Independence
59.0%
4.5
2008 / Financial Crisis
48.0%
1.5
Bank / Asset 10+ times
43.0%
6.5
Task Force 5+ times
37.5%
0.5
Prediction / Predictive
35.5%
5.0
Good Day
35.5%
1.0
Too Late
25.0%
Integrity
20.5%
3.0
Stable 5+ times
20.0%
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
12.0%
1.5
Gold
10.0%
Trump
2.30%
1.8
-No Qualifying Event-
1.70%

Probability over time

Only one day recorded so far. We record once each morning, so the line starts tomorrow.

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Probabilities are Polymarket trade prices, formed by participants betting real money. They are not official forecasts and are a poor basis for investment decisions.