What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Polymarket traders put "4.25%" at 63.3% on "What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?". Down 5.5%p from yesterday. $827 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 15 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
4.25%
▼5.563%
EconomyVol $827Total volume $6.9MLiquidity $481KComments 5in 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 10 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
4.25%
63.3%
▼5.5
4.0%
25.1%
▲5.7
≥ 4.5%
11.1%
▲1.0
3.5%
1.50%
–
3.75%
0.75%
–
3.25%
0.45%
–
≤1.0%
0.35%
–
1.25
0.35%
–
1.75%
0.30%
–
2.25%
0.25%
–
2.5%
0.25%
–
2.75%
0.25%
–
3.0%
0.25%
–
2.0%
0.25%
–
1.5%
0.20%
–
Probability over time
4.25%
4.0%
≥ 4.5%
3.5%
3.75%
3.25%
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-10 · y-axis %
