Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
Polymarket traders put "Goldman Sachs" at 5.7% on "Which banks will fail by end of 2026?". Unchanged from yesterday. There are 19 possible outcomes. It resolves on May 1.
Most likely right now
Goldman Sachs
–6%
EconomyVol -Total volume $81KLiquidity $11Kin 7 months (May 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Goldman Sachs
5.70%
–
BNP Paribas
3.00%
–
US Bank
2.90%
–
Truist
2.90%
–
Santander
2.60%
–
BNY
2.50%
–
RBC
2.50%
–
Morgan Stanley
2.45%
–
Wells Fargo
2.45%
–
Scotiabank
2.35%
–
Deutsche Bank
2.35%
–
Citigroup
2.30%
–
KeyBank
2.30%
–
Bank of America
2.25%
–
JPMorgan Chase
1.90%
–
HSBC
1.85%
–
BMO
1.85%
–
Lloyds
1.45%
–
UBS
1.35%
–
Probability over time
Goldman Sachs
BNP Paribas
US Bank
Truist
Santander
BNY
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
