Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Polymarket traders put "Anthropic" at 63.0% on "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?". Up 13.5%p from yesterday. $611 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 14 possible outcomes. It resolves on Jan 1.
Most likely right now
Anthropic
▲13.563%
EconomyVol $611Total volume $207KLiquidity $69Kin 3 months (Jan 1)
Current probability
Oct 9 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
Anthropic
63.0%
▲13.5
OpenAI
12.5%
▲2.0
Meta
9.00%
–
Alibaba
6.50%
–
Baidu
6.50%
–
Z.ai
6.50%
–
xAI
6.00%
▼3.0
DeepSeek
5.50%
–
Microsoft
4.50%
–
Meituan
3.10%
–
Amazon
3.05%
–
Moonshot
2.95%
–
Mistral
2.65%
–
ByteDance
0.85%
–
Probability over time
Anthropic
OpenAI
Meta
Alibaba
Baidu
Z.ai
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-10-09 · y-axis %
