Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Polymarket traders put "OpenAI" at 28.5% on "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?". Down 1.0%p from yesterday. $472 traded in the last 24 hours. There are 14 possible outcomes. It resolves on Dec 31.
Most likely right now
OpenAI
▼1.028%
EconomyVol $472Total volume $130KLiquidity $72Kin 4 months (Dec 31)
Current probability
Aug 26 · right column is the 24-hour change (pp)
0%50%100%
OpenAI
28.5%
▼1.0
Google
16.5%
–
xAI
12.5%
–
Alibaba
11.5%
–
Meta
11.5%
–
Moonshot
11.0%
–
Z.ai
8.50%
–
ByteDance
7.50%
–
Baidu
6.50%
–
DeepSeek
6.50%
–
Microsoft
4.50%
–
Amazon
3.45%
–
Mistral
2.85%
–
Meituan
2.80%
–
Probability over time
OpenAI
Google
xAI
Alibaba
Meta
Moonshot
2026-08-25 ~ 2026-08-26 · y-axis %
