Norms Control Shrinks Japan's Operational Space

An analysis suggests China is shrinking Japan's operational space by shaping norms, going beyond mere physical occupation. This method of expanding influence could reduce Japan's strategic options and weaken its role within the U.S. alliance system. China has repeatedly used measures such as NOTAMs to prompt changes in Japan's behavior. If these measures become normalized, Japan's operational freedom will be constrained, and its risk calculations will shift. When China creates a crisis targeting Japan, it can more easily rally domestic public opinion compared to crises concerning Taiwan. This strategy exploits anti-Japan sentiment rooted in historical conflicts.

The meeting between Taiwan's Kuomintang Chairman Eric Chu and Chinese President Xi Jinping marks a top-level exchange upholding the 'One China' principle, illustrating Beijing's parallel strategies of strengthening its influence within Taiwan while targeting Japan. President Xi told Chairman Chu that both sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family and that the future of cross-strait relations is in the hands of the Chinese people. The scheduling of meetings between former U.S. President Donald Trump and President Xi provided China with strategic opportunities amidst heightened U.S. focus on potential conflict with Iran. China's strategy toward Japan is ultimately dependent on the United States, but Washington's stance is evolving. Recent interactions between Japan's Minister Sanae Takaichi and former President Trump did not lead to strengthened military commitments between the two countries, reflecting a transactional rather than alliance-centric mindset, without clarifying U.S. support in the event of a China-Japan conflict.