Strait of Hormuz blockade could delay market normalization until 2027, says Aramco CEO

Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, diagnosed that the energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran has pushed the global oil market's supply-demand imbalance to a critical point. CEO Amin Nasser characterized the current energy crisis as the worst supply shock in history.

He warned that if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, market normalization could be difficult until 2027. He stated that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which historically averaged 70 per day, has recently plummeted to only 2-5 ships. Aramco views this energy crisis as likely to worsen further in the second quarter of this year.

Nasser said that demand restraint phenomena will continue until the strait reopens, and a competition to rebuild strategic petroleum reserves and commercial inventories for future supply stability is expected.

Nasser stated that Aramco is prepared to reach its maximum sustainable production capacity of 12 million barrels per day within three weeks if necessary. He explained that refinery facilities recently attacked by Iran were repaired within days, and they are responding by maximizing the operation of refinery facilities in western Saudi Arabia.

Nasser explained that in response to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, they are strengthening export capacity at the western Yanbu port. The northern and southern terminals in Yanbu currently have a crude oil export capacity of 5 million barrels per day, and they are considering further expanding their export capacity.